May 25, 2026 – The league’s official analytics office released its weekly NFL Power Rankings, pushing the Kansas City Chiefs out of the top five for the first time since 2022 and lifting the Baltimore Ravens into a coveted playoff position. The shift reflects divergent trends in turnover margins, red‑zone efficiency and injury impact across the AFC and NFC.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes returned from a rib injury but the offense stalled, while the Ravens’ ground game surged under Lamar Jackson’s dual‑threat play‑calling. Both teams are now on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum as the regular season enters its final stretch.
What drove the latest rankings?
The rankings weigh EPA per play, DVOA, turnover differential and strength of schedule. Kansas City’s turnover margin slipped to negative for the first time this year, dragging its EPA down, whereas Baltimore posted a league‑best red‑zone conversion rate of 68% and a +7 turnover differential, boosting its overall rating. The numbers reveal that ball security now weighs heavier than raw explosiveness, a fact that stunned many analysts who expected Mahomes to carry the Chiefs despite the setback.
According to ESPN, the analytics office also factored in injury-adjusted snap counts, which penalized Kansas City for missing key linemen. Meanwhile, the Ravens benefited from a healthier offensive line that allowed Jackson to stay in the game longer, a factor that was reflected in the DVOA boost.
How do the numbers compare to last season?
Last season the Chiefs finished the year with a +12 turnover margin and ranked third in EPA, while the Ravens were 12th in red‑zone efficiency. This year’s regression for Kansas City and the Ravens’ improvement are stark, underscoring how quickly fortunes can change when key metrics move in opposite directions. A side‑by‑side look shows the Chiefs dropping 15 spots in EPA ranking, whereas Baltimore climbed nine spots in red‑zone success.
In addition, the league’s DVOA table shows Green Bay slipping to 30th in pass defense, a steep decline from a top‑five finish a year ago, highlighting how defensive metrics can swing just as dramatically as offensive ones.
Implications for the AFC race
Chiefs veteran safety Nick Bolton, who anchored the defense during the 2020 run to the Super Bowl, now faces a contract year that could hinge on his ability to force turnovers after a dip in takeaways this stretch. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s recent free‑agent haul of edge rusher Calais Campbell adds a veteran pass‑rush presence that could keep Jackson’s offense honest in the weeks ahead. The Ravens’ surge forces the AFC North to become a three‑team battle, with the Steelers and Browns watching closely. If Kansas City can reverse its ball‑security woes, the Chiefs still possess the firepower to re‑enter the top tier, but the margin for error has narrowed dramatically.
Per NFL.com, the next set of rankings will be released after Week 14, giving both clubs a chance to adjust their strategies before the final push.
Key Developments
- Chiefs’ turnover margin turned negative, the first such dip since the 2020 campaign.
- Ravens achieved a 68% red‑zone touchdown rate, the highest among all 32 clubs this season.
- Green Bay’s pass defense fell to 30th in DVOA, a steep decline from a top‑five finish a year ago.
What’s next for the contenders?
The Chiefs must tighten ball security and re‑establish their high‑EPA passing game to regain a top‑four spot. Baltimore, meanwhile, will aim to sustain its red‑zone dominance while managing the wear on Jackson’s running backs. Both teams face crucial matchups in Weeks 13 and 14 that could cement or shatter their playoff trajectories.
How are the NFL Power Rankings calculated?
The rankings combine advanced metrics such as Expected Points Added (EPA), Defense‑adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), turnover differential and strength of schedule. Each factor is weighted to produce a composite score that reflects overall team performance.
Why did the Chiefs fall out of the top five?
Kansas City’s decline stems from a negative turnover margin and a dip in EPA per play after Mahomes’ injury, combined with a tougher schedule in the latter half of the season.
Can the Ravens maintain their red‑zone efficiency?
Ravens’ success relies on a balanced attack and Jackson’s play‑action reads; sustaining it will depend on keeping key offensive linemen healthy and limiting defensive adjustments by opponents.
When will the next NFL Power Rankings be released?
The league updates the rankings every Monday night, so the next set will drop after Week 14’s games, giving fans a fresh look at the playoff picture.
Which metric had the biggest impact on the Ravens’ rise?
Red‑zone touchdown conversion rate was the biggest driver, as the Ravens turned 68% of red‑zone trips into scores, a league‑leading figure that lifted their overall rating.
