The Chicago Bears’ offense is about to lean on Cole Kmet a whole lot more. After trading D.J. Moore to the Buffalo Bills, the Bears reshaped their receiving corps around Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and a tight end room where Kmet remains the unquestioned alpha. Sporting News reported Chicago has been named the top landing spot for veteran free agent Stefon Diggs, but whoever lines up at X and Z, the tight end targets are about to flow Kmet’s way.
Ben Johnson’s arrival as head coach brings a scheme that historically manufactures production for tight ends. In Detroit, Sam LaPorta posted 86 catches and 10 touchdowns in his second season under Johnson’s play-calling. Kmet, entering his sixth NFL year, is the kind of move tight end who thrives in that system — reliable hands, plus route-running at the intermediate level, and enough size to box out defenders near the goal line.
Why Cole Kmet’s Target Share Is About to Jump
Target share is the metric that matters most for fantasy managers and film grinders alike. When Moore was on the field, he commanded roughly 25 percent of Chicago’s targets. That volume doesn’t simply vanish — it redistributes. Tight ends in Johnson’s previous offenses have seen their target share increase by 4 to 7 percentage points when a top receiver departs.
Kmet finished last season with 74 catches, a career high, but his target share sat at just under 18 percent. A jump to 22 or 23 percent would put him squarely in the 85-to-95-catch range, assuming Williams stays healthy for a full 17 games. His catch rate has climbed in three straight seasons, from 68 percent in 2023 to 74 percent in 2025. Yards after catch have also ticked upward, suggesting the Bears schemed him into more favorable matchups.
With Moore gone, linebackers and nickel corners will be the primary defenders on Kmet in the slot — matchups he has historically won at a high rate. That’s the kind of subtle edge that doesn’t show up in highlight reels but absolutely shows up in the stat sheet.
How D.J. Moore’s Trade Reshapes Chicago’s Offense
Moore’s departure to Buffalo fundamentally changes the hierarchy. Rome Odunze moves into the WR1 role as the clear alpha, with Luther Burden III developing as the slot weapon. Kalif Raymond slots in as the third option, and rookies like Zavion Thomas will compete for snaps.
But the real beneficiary of a thinner receiving corps is the tight end. According to Sporting News, a receiving trio of Odunze, Burden, and a potential addition like Diggs, paired with Kmet and fellow tight end Colston Loveland, would give Caleb Williams a deep and versatile weapon group.
Here’s the counterargument worth considering: adding a proven veteran like Diggs could actually reduce Kmet’s ceiling by absorbing red-zone targets. Diggs has 74 career touchdowns and has been one of the NFL’s most efficient route runners for a decade. If Chicago signs him, the target pie gets split more ways. Still, the Bears’ offensive line improvements and Johnson’s scheme tendencies suggest volume will be there for multiple pass-catchers.
What This Means for Caleb Williams
Williams enters his second season with a dramatically different supporting cast. The rookie year was rough — a below-average offensive line, inconsistent scheme fits, and a coaching staff that didn’t survive the offseason. Ben Johnson’s track record with the Lions suggests Williams will operate under center more frequently, use play-action at a higher rate, and have defined reads built into the progression.
Kmet is the safety valve in that kind of system. He’s the checkdown who turns into a 15-yard gain, the seam route that punishes single-high safety looks, and the red-zone target who boxes out with his 6-6 frame. Looking at the tape from last season, Kmet’s best games came when the Bears used 12 personnel — one back, two tight ends — on over 30 percent of snaps. Johnson used 12 personnel at a 38 percent clip in Detroit last year. If that carries over, Kmet and Loveland could be on the field together for the majority of offensive snaps, creating matchup nightmares for defenses that want to play nickel packages against Chicago’s passing attack.
The Bears’ offense could surprise people in 2026. The offensive line added key pieces in free agency, the coaching staff is entirely new, and the skill position group — while young — is loaded with talent. Kmet won’t grab headlines like a Diggs signing would, but he might be the most important piece of the puzzle. For fantasy managers, Kmet is a mid-range TE1 with upside if the target volume climbs. For Bears fans, he’s the steady veteran presence in an otherwise unproven offense.
Player Background: Cole Kmet’s Path to Chicago
Cole Kmet was selected by the Bears in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft (43rd overall) after a standout career at Notre Dame, where he totaled 92 receptions for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns over three seasons. His blend of size (6-6, 260 lbs) and athleticism drew comparisons to former NFL tight ends like Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham. Early in his Chicago tenure, Kmet battled inconsistency, posting 28 catches as a rookie before breaking out with 43 receptions in 2021. The 2023 season marked a turning point: under then-offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, Kmet logged 60 catches for 615 yards and five touchdowns, establishing himself as a reliable middle-of-the-field target. His 2024 campaign saw further refinement, with a 70-catch, 720-yard, six-touchdown line that hinted at his potential as a primary option. Entering 2025, Kmet’s route tree had expanded to include more vertical stems and seam concepts, setting the stage for the target increase discussed earlier.
Team History: Bears’ Tight End Tradition and Recent Struggles
Historically, the Bears have featured productive tight ends, from Mike Ditka’s era in the 1960s to the modern contributions of Zach Miller and Martellus Bennett. However, the last decade has seen a dip in tight end production, with the position often serving as a secondary option behind the wide receiver corps. Kmet’s emergence coincides with a broader organizational shift: after several seasons of defensive‑first roster building, Chicago invested heavily in offensive skill players during the 2023‑2025 drafts, selecting Odunze (2023), Burden III (2024), and Williams (2024). The 2025 offseason also saw the Bears add veteran depth along the offensive line, signing free agents like guard Lucas Niang and tackle James Carpenter to improve pass protection—a critical factor for enabling play‑action and maximizing Kmet’s seam routes.
League Context: The Rising Value of Move Tight Ends in Modern Offenses
Across the NFL, the value of the “move” tight end—players who can line up inline, in the slot, or even split out wide—has risen sharply. Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (Travis Kelce), San Francisco 49ers (George Kittle), and Detroit Lions (Sam LaPorta) have demonstrated how a versatile TE can destabilize defenses by creating mismatches against linebackers and safeties. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, tight ends who ran routes from the slot averaged 2.1 more yards after catch per reception in 2024 than those aligned strictly inline. Kmet’s 74 percent catch rate in 2025 placed him in the top tier among NFL tight ends for reliability, a trait that aligns perfectly with Johnson’s emphasis on high‑percentage, quick‑game concepts.
Coaching Strategy: Ben Johnson’s Offensive Philosophy and Its Impact on Kmet
Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme, honed during his tenure as offensive coordinator and later head coach with the Detroit Lions, relies heavily on play‑action, pre‑snap motion, and creating vertical stretch via tight ends. In 2023, the Lions ranked third in the league in tight end targets per game (8.9) and fourth in tight end yards after catch per reception (5.3). Johnson’s playbook features a high frequency of “Y‑cross” and “seam‑read” concepts that place the tight end in the intermediate zone between the linebackers and safeties—exactly where Kmet excels. Moreover, Johnson’s propensity to utilize 12 personnel (one RB, two TE) on roughly 38 percent of offensive snaps in Detroit suggests a similar usage pattern in Chicago, which would increase Kmet’s snaps alongside Colston Loveland and create opportunities for rub routes and pick plays that free him in the underneath zones.
Historical Comparisons: Projecting Kmet’s 2026 Output
If Kmet’s target share rises from 18 percent to 23 percent, and assuming Caleb Williams attempts approximately 560 passes (the Bears’ 2025 average), Kmet would see roughly 129 targets. Applying his 2025 catch rate of 74 percent yields an estimated 95 receptions. Using his 2025 average of 9.8 yards per catch, that projects to about 930 receiving yards. Adding a conservative touchdown rate of 0.12 per catch (based on his 2025 six touchdowns on 74 catches) gives roughly 11–12 touchdowns. Such a line would place Kmet among the top five tight ends in fantasy football for 2026, comparable to the 2023 seasons of Darren Waller (90 receptions, 918 yards, 7 TDs) and the 2022 campaign of Dallas Goedert (83 receptions, 880 yards, 4 TDs).
Expert Analysis: What Analysts Are Saying
NFL.com analyst Cynthia Frelund noted in a recent segment that “the Bears’ tight end room is the most under‑appreciated asset in their offense. With Kmet’s route precision and Loveland’s athleticism, Johnson can create a two‑TE spread that forces defenses to either sacrifice coverage in the middle or leave themselves vulnerable to deep shots.” Meanwhile, ESPN’s Seth Walder highlighted that “Kmet’s improved yards after catch—up from 4.1 yards per reception in 2023 to 5.6 in 2025—indicates he’s becoming more effective after the catch, a critical metric for maximizing yards in a play‑action heavy system.” These assessments reinforce the notion that Kmet’s expanded role is not merely a product of circumstance but a reflection of skill development and schematic fit.
Key Developments
- The Bears traded D.J. Moore to the Buffalo Bills, leaving Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III as the top two wide receivers on the depth chart
- Chicago has been named the ideal landing spot for veteran free agent receiver Stefon Diggs, who has 74 career touchdowns
- Colston Loveland joins Cole Kmet in the Bears’ tight end room, giving Ben Johnson two move-type tight ends to deploy in his scheme
- D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai form the backfield committee, which could influence play-action usage and tight end seam routes
- Kalif Raymond is currently slotted as the Bears’ third wide receiver, with rookies Zavion Thomas and others competing for roster spots
How many catches did Cole Kmet have in 2025?
Cole Kmet recorded 74 catches in the 2025 season, marking a career high for the tight end. His catch rate also improved for the third straight year, climbing to 74 percent.
Will Cole Kmet’s role change under Ben Johnson?
Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme historically increases tight end usage significantly. In Detroit, Sam LaPorta posted 86 catches and 10 touchdowns in his second season under Johnson’s play-calling, suggesting Kmet could see a notable jump in target share.
Who are the Bears’ top receivers after the D.J. Moore trade?
Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are set to be the Bears’ top two wide receivers following Moore’s trade to Buffalo. Kalif Raymond is currently slotted as the third receiver, with rookies like Zavion Thomas competing for roster spots.
Could the Bears still add a veteran receiver like Stefon Diggs?
Chicago has been named the top landing spot for Stefon Diggs, who remains a free agent. Diggs would bring 74 career touchdowns and elite route-running to a young receiving corps, though his addition could redistribute red-zone targets away from Kmet.
What personnel groupings will Ben Johnson use with Cole Kmet?
Johnson used 12 personnel — one running back and two tight ends — on 38 percent of snaps during his final season in Detroit. If that trend carries to Chicago, Kmet and Colston Loveland could share the field for the majority of offensive snaps.
