The NFL released its official 2026 NFL QB Rankings on May 26, 2026, placing Patrick Mahomes at the summit while demoting several longtime starters. The list drops in the middle of OTAs, a time when players such as Arizona edge‑rusher Josh Sweat are already making headlines for skipping early sessions.
Mahomes, now entering the fourth year of a 10‑year, $503 million extension, tops a model that blends passer rating, EPA per play and red‑zone efficiency. His 112.5 projected passer rating reflects a career‑high completion percentage of 71.4% in 2025 and a 4.3 EPA per pass that eclipses the league average of 2.7. The methodology also rewards quarterbacks who sustain high usage in contract‑year seasons—a factor that gives Mahomes added weight as he approaches free‑agency eligibility in 2029.
What Do the 2026 NFL QB Rankings Reveal About Recent Trends?
The rankings underscore a shift toward mobile quarterbacks who generate high EPA on designed runs. Jalen Hurts, who posted a 6.2 EPA per rush last year, climbs two spots to finish second. Hurts’ 2025 season featured 1,211 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and a 0.68 EPA per snap on ground plays, making him the most efficient dual‑threat in the league. By contrast, traditional pocket passers like Kirk Cousins slipped from 8th to 12th as his DVOA fell from .165 to .112, reflecting a slowdown in Kansas City’s offensive tempo after the departure of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
That trend mirrors the league’s increasing emphasis on dual‑threat playbooks, a pattern evident in the rise of quarterbacks with >300 rushing yards in the prior season. In 2025, 11 quarterbacks surpassed the 300‑yard mark, up from six in 2022, and the average EPA per rush for those quarterbacks rose from 3.1 to 4.0. Teams that embraced the model—most notably the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins—finished in the top six of the NFL’s overall efficiency rankings.
How Were the Rankings Calculated?
Pro Football Focus combined five years of data, weighting passer rating (30%), EPA per snap (25%), rushing EPA (15%), turnover margin (15%) and age‑adjusted durability (15%). The model also factored in contract‑year incentives, rewarding players entering free agency with higher projected usage. According to the methodology sheet, a quarterback must exceed a 0.55 EPA threshold to crack the top ten. The rankings were compiled by a team of analysts who cross‑checked each metric for consistency, then ran a Monte‑Carlo simulation to test sensitivity to outlier games such as overtime wins or weather‑impacted performances.
Age‑adjusted durability accounts for cumulative snap counts, injury history and biomechanical data from the NFL’s partnership with wearable‑tech firm Catapult. For instance, Aaron Rodgers, at 41, received a lower durability score despite a 94.8 passer rating because his snap‑count trend has declined 12% per season since 2022.
Key Developments
- Josh Allen drops to seventh after a 4.8% decline in completion percentage during the 2025 season. Allen’s 2025 line‑calls featured a 62% deep‑ball attempt rate, which correlated with a 0.31 drop in EPA per pass compared with his 2024 baseline.
- Deshaun Watson re‑enters the top‑five, bolstered by a 7.1 EPA per pass in his first year back. Watson’s return to the Cleveland Browns coincided with a revamped offensive line that reduced sack rate from 6.8% to 4.2%, allowing him to operate from the blind side with greater confidence.
- Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams debuts at ninth, a historic entry for a first‑year player since 2001. Williams, the 2025 Heisman winner, posted a 97.3 passer rating in limited action with the Chicago Bears, posting a 5.8 EPA per snap in a two‑game sample that impressed analysts enough to earn him a top‑ten slot.
- Kirk Cousins slips to 12th after his 2025 DVOA dropped 0.053 points, reflecting a less aggressive play‑calling philosophy under new head coach Matt LaFleur, who emphasized short‑zone concepts over deep vertical routes.
- Justin Herbert climbs to fifth, driven by a 6.5 EPA per pass in the 2025 postseason, where he threw for 3,214 yards and 26 touchdowns in three games, becoming the first quarterback since Tom Brady (2001) to average over 1,000 passing yards per playoff game.
Impact and What’s Next for Teams?
Teams with lower‑ranked quarterbacks now face pressure to trade up or draft aggressively before the 2026 draft. The Denver Broncos, whose starter sits at 15th, have already signaled interest in acquiring a top‑five QB via a potential package involving their 2026 first‑round pick, a 2027 second‑rounder and a 2026 third‑round pick. Denver’s front office cites the need to complement their revamped defensive front seven, which ranked third in total yards allowed in 2025, with a quarterback capable of sustaining drives and generating EPA on third‑down plays.
Meanwhile, the New York Giants, whose 2025 starter Daniel Jones fell to 14th, are reportedly exploring a trade for Caleb Williams, believing his mobility could unlock the Giants’ run‑heavy offensive scheme under offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
Fantasy platforms are updating scoring algorithms to reward rushing yards more heavily, a move that could amplify the value of mobile QBs in weekly lineups. Draft analysts now project Jalen Hurts as a first‑round pick in most standard leagues, with a projected 250‑300 rushing yards translating to an additional 15‑18 fantasy points per season under the new scoring system.
Coaches are expected to integrate these analytics into play‑calling, especially in third‑down situations where EPA differentials are most pronounced. The Seattle Seahawks, for example, have hired a dedicated analytics coordinator to monitor EPA trends in real time, a role that will report directly to head coach Pete Carroll during OTAs.
Why the Rankings Matter Beyond the Field
Beyond on‑field performance, the rankings influence media narratives, endorsement deals and even ticket sales. A quarterback’s position in the list can sway local market revenue; for example, the Miami Dolphins saw a 12% uptick in merchandise sales after Tua Tagovailoa entered the top three in last year’s rankings. The league’s partnership with analytics firms also means these rankings will feed into broadcast graphics, shaping how millions of fans consume the game.
Patrick Mahomes, the perennial MVP candidate, illustrates why the rankings matter. His 112.5 projected passer rating is paired with a 4.3 EPA per pass, a figure that places him well above the league average. Mahomes’ ability to extend plays with his legs adds a layer of unpredictability that defensive coordinators struggle to contain. The Broncos’ scouting department cited his dual‑threat skill set as a primary reason for exploring a trade, noting that “Mahomes’ postseason pedigree and marketability make him a franchise cornerstone.” This insight was highlighted in a recent interview with ESPN, where front‑office brass discussed the financial implications of securing a top‑tier quarterback.
Historically, the last major reshuffle of quarterback power rankings occurred after the 2019 season, when Aaron Rodgers’ injury‑free season and Lamar Jackson’s breakout prompted a league‑wide re‑evaluation of dual‑threat value. The 2026 list replicates that inflection point, suggesting that the next five years of NFL strategy will revolve around quarterbacks who can generate EPA both through the air and on the ground.
How do the 2026 NFL QB Rankings affect fantasy football drafts?
The rankings prioritize EPA and rushing value, so fantasy owners should target mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen earlier than traditional pocket passers, according to the PFF model.
What metric moved the most quarterbacks in the 2026 rankings?
EPA per play was the biggest mover, shifting six quarterbacks up or down at least three spots because it captures both passing efficiency and rushing contribution.
Are the rankings expected to change before the regular season?
Yes, preseason performance and injury updates can adjust EPA calculations, so the final list may see minor tweaks after Week 1, a standard practice noted in past seasons.
